Energy Guru Predicts Bright Future for Renewables, 'Clean' Power
Daniel Yergin, a widely known energy expert who closely advises .jpeg)
the oil and gas industry, is predicting a rosy future for renewable energy, and other "clean" technologies such as nuclear and hydropower, partly as a result of public concern over global warming and driven by subsidies and government mandates.
"High energy prices, climate change and energy security are converging as the new engine driving the development of clean energy," Yergin (pictured at left), chairman of Cambrige Energy Associates, told a gathering at the National Governors Association in Washington, D.C. (Feb. 23). "There is a major shift in public opinion towards clean energy, which is being bolstered by the growing conviction that new carbon policies will reshape the competitive landscape of the global energy business."
Yergin cited the results of a new study by CERA, Crossing the Divide: the Future of Clean Energy, in predicting that renewable power and biofuels could be supplying up to 16 percent of the world's electric and transportation demands by 2030. He said that renewable power technologies, led by wind, followed by solar and biomass, would experience substantial growth. That's despite what he described as short-term bottlenecks in wind turbine manufacturing and other potential problems.
Yergin, according to a written statement released at the time of his speech, maintained that government policy constitutes a "key driver" for advancing "clean energy" (which the report defines as biofuels, renewables, carbon capture and storage and nuclear and hydropower):
"Putting a price on [carbon dioxide] emissions, setting mandates and providing subsidies all work to kick-start clean energy technologies by meeting the economic competitiveness and cost advantages of conventional technologies. The challenge in the years ahead is to provide subsidies in a way that ensures that these technologies get off the drawing board and are able to wean themselves from support – allowing for a phase-out rather than an increase in subsidies – as they become commercially viable on their own. It is also important that mandates be set at achievable levels and with care so as not to create unexpected pressures from higher prices."
Among other points, Yergin asserted that nuclear and hydroelectric generation would account for almost half of the clean power additions by 2030.
The position outlined by CERA and Yergin has gotten some attention partly because of the consulting firm's close linkage with the petroleum industry. The report "reflects a view that has been developing within mainstream industry for more than a year," commented The Wall Street Journal online site Environmental Capital. It called CERA "as close as it gets to a proxy for conventional wisdom within Big Oil."
Yergin is the author of the Pulitzer Prize-winning history of the petroleum industry, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money and Power. The book was made into a public television documentary series.
