DOE Report Finds Big Future for Wind, Cites Challenges
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A new U.S. Department of Energy report finds that wind power could supply up to one-fifth of the nation's electricity by 2030 but not without overcoming challenges such as improving the nation's transmission system.
The news media found lots to note in the report. The Washington Post wrote of the report's findings that wind could displace 50 percent of natural gas consumption and 18 percent of coal consumption in the United States (see story here). The San Francisco Chronicle, meanwhile, cited California's pioneering place in wind power history and cited major new wind farms under development in the state (see story here).
Separately, in a speech to a gathering of scientists, business executives and political leaders co-sponsored by a Republican group, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger touted California's emphasis on alternative energy as a way of fighting global warming. In his address, the governor noted that California patents account for 37 percent of all U.S. patents in wind technology (see press statement here).
The report, "20 Percent Wind Energy by 2030," found that significant hurdles remained to reaching the goal, including such potentially controversial efforts as expanding the transmission grid, as well as improving turbine technology and expanding markets for the power (see press statement here; full report here). In fact, it noted that a new "transmission superhighway system" could be needed to serve the wind farms and it cited one model showing it would be cost-effective to build more than 12,000 miles of additional transmission, at a cost of about $20 billion.
Transmission debates have already begun heating up in some parts of the country and have been identified by experts as a major issue in developing renewable resources (see Climate Law Update stories here and here).
In order to reach the 20 percent figure, the energy department report estimates that wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300,000 megawatts, compared to today's capacity of less than 12,000 megawatts.
"A 20 percent wind scenario in 2030, while ambitious, could be feasible if the significant challenges identified in this report are overcome," said the document. Officials emphasized the need for transmission and for avoiding obstacles to the development of wind energy.
Said the DOE's assistant secretary of energy efficiency and renewable energy Andy Karsner in the department's statement:
“To dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance our energy security, clean power generation at the gigawatt-scale will be necessary, and will require us to take a comprehensive approach to scaling renewable wind power, streamlining siting and permitting processes, and expanding the domestic wind manufacturing base.”
In that same statement, Kevin Kolevar, the department's assistant secretary for electricity delivery and energy reliability, said:
“The report correctly highlights that greater penetration of renewable sources of energy - such as wind - into our electric grid will have to be paired with not only advanced integration technologies but also new transmission. In many cases, the most robust sources of renewable resources are located in remote areas, and if we want to be able to deliver these new clean and abundant sources of energy to population centers, we will need additional transmission.”
Megan Anderson, a Taos, New Mexico, attorney representing the Center for Biological Diversity, in the environmental group's challenge to the energy department's designation of a huge electrical transmission corridor in the Southwest, told Climate Law Update that it's widely accepted that some new facilities would be needed to serve renewable projects. But the Western Environmental Law Center lawyer cited evidence that often the lines are serving "dirty coal" and that whether or not projects such as wind and solar facilities need new transmission is a separate issue from the group's litigation.
"We're not trying to stop transmission. We're just saying that the way these designations have been done is flawed and illegal under environmental laws."
Among the high highlights of the report cited by energy officials:
- The number of turbine installations is anticipated to more than triple from the approximately 2000 constructed in 2006, to nearly 7000 a year by 2017. About 100,000 turbines would be needed to reach the 20 percent generation goal.
- While the demand for vital materials such as copper and fiberglass will increase, the availability of raw materials would not limit the ability to reach the 20 percent mark.
- Costs of achieving the goal would be fairly small, amounting to as little as 50 cents a month for the average consumer.
And the benefits? The department estimated that achieving a 20 percent goal by 2030 could reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 825 million metric tons per year, or a cumulative total of about 7.6 billion tons by that time. By comparison, the United States now accounts for about 6 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions annually.
Achieving the 20 percent goal would be "the equivalent of taking 140 million cars off the road,” said Randall Swisher, executive director of the American Wind Energy Association, which participated in developing the information in the report (see AWEA press statement here). He noted that the document identified the central constraints to reaching the objective, including transmission "and demonstrates how each can be overcome."
The report also cited other benefits, including reducing other forms of air and water pollution associated with other forms of power generation, reduced water consumption associated with mining or generation and improved national energy security.
In his remarks Tuesday, Schwarzenegger urged attendees at a Southern California conference put on by the GOP-leaning New Majority, as well as the University of California-Irvine, to "put the power of California capitalism" to work to find energy solutions. He said the state has the ability to become "the first state in the nation to achieve energy independence while fighting global warming."
(Photo courtesy U.S. Department of Energy)
Sadly, my research suggests that "Wind energy development is strongly tied to financial incentives and infrastructure build-out needs." And, the readiness of the individual states to offer such incentives is a more reliable indicator of development than wind power capacity.
To wit: " North and South Dakota, listed first and fourth, respectively, in wind energy potential, do not currently mandate any renewable standards for wind energy. Whereas, in California, 20 percent of the state’s electric sales must be procured from renewable sources by 2010."
http://industry.bnet.com/energy/2008/04/10/wind-energy-report-suggests-huge-untapped-midwest-market/?p=3
My Best,
David J Phillips
Contributing Energy Analyst
CNET/BNET