Ignoring Climate Change Carries a High Price, Environmental Group Says
There's been lots of debate on how much society would have to pay to combat the effects of climate change. Now, a new report puts a very big price tag on the potential cost of inaction.
According to researchers at Tufts University, in a study commissioned by the Natural Resources Defense Council, the United States economy could suffer a 3.6 percent hit in its gross domestic product by the end of the century if nothing is done to check greenhouse gas emissions. That amounts to $3.8 trillion annually, according to a press statement from the environmental group, accompanying the release of the report and an associated fact sheet.
The NRDC supports efforts such as the Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act, which just took on a new look in the form of a substitute backed by Sen. Barbara Boxer, (see also a summary of the most recent bill). Boxer, a California Democrat, chairs the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee.
In the NRDC's statement upon the release of the new document, "The Cost of Climate Change: What W'll Pay if Global Warming Continues Unchecked," Dan Lashof, director of the group's climate center, had this to say:
“The longer we wait, the more painful and expensive the consequences will be. This report’s findings are undeniable – we must act now. The Climate Security Act currently in the U.S. Senate is our best opportunity to set a concrete limit on global warming pollution and provide an accompanying market that rewards companies for making real reductions.”
The document comes as part of a flurry of activity, including the emergence of the new version of the bill, in advance of the Senate's pending consideration of the legislation, expected for next month. Environmental groups, including the NRDC, recently praised Boxer's work on the measure, which would establish a cap-and-trade system for emissions, but they have said it still needs strengthening to achieve needed reductions in the output of heat-trapping gases.
As for the costs associated with tackling the problem, it's a debate that seems likely to continue, given the potentially wide-ranging effects of attempting to wring as much carbon dioxide and other gases believed to contribute to global warming out of society as possible. A set of California policy recommendations recently noted by Climate Law Update offered just one hint of the possible ramifications.
As Climate Law Update also has been reporting, analyses have been pouring forth from government energy and environmental agencies, as well as industry, of the potential economic impacts of the legislation now pending in Congress. Environmental groups, meanwhile, have been quick to point out that the studies often ignore the harm of allowing emissions to continue unchecked.
In the latest report, the researchers based their estimates on what the summary called "the most pessimistic of the business-as-usual climate forecasts considered 'likely' by the scientific community." That scenario included a 13-degree Fahrenheit temperature rise over most of the United States in the next 100 years. The study then estimated economic impacts from a detailed focus on four impacts -- including hurricane damage, real estate losses, energy costs and water costs -- as well as what was characterized as a comprehensive look at the costs to the country as a whole.
The cost of the four specific impacts alone could hit $1.9 trillion a year, or 1.8 percent of the United States' GDP by 2100, the researchers estimated. The largest segment of that was $950 billion for providing water to dried-out parts of the country, followed by hurricane damage estimated at $422 billion. By way of contrast, the recent study by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency cited earlier predicted that the previous version of the Lieberman-Warner bill could slow the economy by about 1 percent or more by 2030.
Recently, at least some researchers have cast doubt on whether an upsurge in hurricanes can be traced to global warming. On the other hand, one recent U.S. government study predicted dire consequences for the Gulf Coast as a result of storms and flooding as the climate heats up.
In the NRDC's statement, Tufts University researcher Frank Ackerman, a co-author of the report, cautioned that not all impacts from climate change can be summed up in raw numbers:
“Some important impacts are priceless, so the real situation is worse than the numbers can convey. But the numbers, for those impacts we can put prices on, are bad enough. Climate change is on a collision course with the U.S. economy, long before the end of the century, unless we act now.”
(Photo: Hurricane Katrina damage to Gulfport, Mississippi; Federal Emergency Management Agency via Wikipedia)
