Just what kind of daunting challenges -- and, possibly, opportunities -- confront civilization as it tries to reduce its impact on the climate were set out by federal numbers crunchers Wednesday, who predicted world energy use could skyrocket by more than 50 percent in the next couple of decades.
Sets of statistics released by the Energy Information Administration, the analytical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy, also disclosed that emissions of a chief greenhouse gas carbon dioxide could spike by about 50 percent over that same period of time.
Highlights of the report also showed that, barring "significant changes in existing laws and policies," coal will see "robust" increases over the period, with much of the demand driven by China. On the other hand, it noted that high prices for oil and natural gas encourage expanded use of renewable energy.
The continuing importance of coal was underscored by an announcement from the energy department earlier in the week of a new round of funding totaling about $1.3 billion over the next few years for projects that would capture and store carbon from coal-fired power plants. The money is part of the department's overhauled FutureGen program, which was the subject of a previous Climate Law Update report.
The report's avalanche of numbers expressed energy consumption in the standard British thermal unit (Btu). It predicted that total world energy use would mushroom from 462 quadrillion Btu in 2005 to 695 quadrillion Btu in 2030, an increase of about 50.4 percent. Much of that demand is driven by economic growth outside the 30 member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which includes North America, Europe and Australia.
Along those lines, the report's authors noted that China has been at the center of a sharp increase in coal consumption over the past several years. Use of the fossil fuel there has nearly doubled since 2000 and will likely "increase strongly" in the future, according to the document, which said the country accounted for a whopping 71 percent of the world's increase. The United States and India, it said, accounted for 9 percent each.
Overall, the report predicted that world coal consumption could spike to 202 quadrillion Btu by 2030, compared to 123 quadrillion in 2005.
Liquids such as petroleum are expected to remain "the world's dominant energy source" throughout the period, the report also noted. It predicted use would go from the equivalent of 83.6 billion barrels of oil a day currently to more than 112.5 million barrels in 2030. However, it also saw biofuels, such as ethanol as "an increasingly important source of unconventional liquids supplies," mostly as a result of growing U.S. production.
Meanwhile, the report also predicted strong growth for nuclear power generation of electricity, which it said could increase from 2005's 2.6 trillion kilowatt hours to 3.8 trillion kwh, "as concerns about rising fossil fuel prices, energy security, and greenhouse gas emissions support the development of new nuclear generation." But it also warned that issues such as radioactive waste disposal and nuclear weapons proliferation could raise obstacles to that expansion.
As oil and natural gas prices rise, the report projected that renewable sources would experience an increase in demand. It showed about a 2.1 percent annual growth in renewable energy (about the same percentage increase as coal), much of it coming from hydropower projects in Asia and Latin America.
As for the issue of carbon dioxide emissions, of course closely related to energy consumption, the report predicted a 51 percent increase in emissions between 2005 and 2030. Again, much of that is expected to come from the developing nations of the world.
(Photo of coal plant at sunset: U.S. Department of Energy)