In The News (July 31)

World Energy Demand to Spike by More than Half in Next Two Decades

Just what kind of daunting challenges -- and, possibly, opportunities -- confront civilization as it tries to reduce its impact on the climate were set out by federal numbers crunchers Wednesday, who predicted world energy use could skyrocket by more than 50 percent in the next couple of decades.

Sets of statistics released by the Energy Information Administration, the analytical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy, also disclosed that emissions of a chief greenhouse gas carbon dioxide could spike by about 50 percent over that same period of time.

Highlights of the report also showed that, barring "significant changes in existing laws and policies," coal will see "robust" increases over the period, with much of the demand driven by China. On the other hand, it noted that high prices for oil and natural gas encourage expanded use of renewable energy. 

The continuing importance of coal was underscored by an announcement from the energy department earlier in the week of a new round of funding totaling about $1.3 billion over the next few years for projects that would capture and store carbon from coal-fired power plants. The money is part of the department's overhauled FutureGen program, which was the subject of a previous Climate Law Update report.

The report's avalanche of numbers expressed energy consumption in the standard British thermal unit (Btu). It predicted that total world energy use would mushroom from 462 quadrillion Btu in 2005 to 695 quadrillion Btu in 2030, an increase of about 50.4 percent. Much of that demand is driven by economic growth outside the 30 member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which includes North America, Europe and Australia.

Along those lines, the report's authors noted that China has been at the center of a sharp increase in coal consumption over the past several years. Use of the fossil fuel there has nearly doubled since 2000 and will likely "increase strongly" in the future, according to the document, which said the country accounted for a whopping 71 percent of the world's increase. The United States and India, it said, accounted for 9 percent each.

Overall, the report predicted that world coal consumption could spike to 202 quadrillion Btu by 2030, compared to 123 quadrillion in 2005.

Liquids such as petroleum are expected to remain "the world's dominant energy source" throughout the period, the report also noted. It predicted use would go from the equivalent of 83.6 billion barrels of oil a day currently to more than 112.5 million barrels in 2030. However, it also saw biofuels, such as ethanol as "an increasingly important source of unconventional liquids supplies," mostly as a result of growing U.S. production.

Meanwhile, the report also predicted strong growth for nuclear power generation of electricity, which it said could increase from 2005's 2.6 trillion kilowatt hours to 3.8 trillion kwh, "as concerns about rising fossil fuel prices, energy security, and greenhouse gas emissions support the development of new nuclear generation." But it also warned that issues such as radioactive waste disposal and nuclear weapons proliferation could raise obstacles to that expansion.

As oil and natural gas prices rise, the report projected that renewable sources would experience an increase in demand. It showed about a 2.1 percent annual growth in renewable energy (about the same percentage increase as coal), much of it coming from hydropower projects in Asia and Latin America.

As for the issue of carbon dioxide emissions, of course closely related to energy consumption, the report predicted a 51 percent increase in emissions between 2005 and 2030. Again, much of that is expected to come from the developing nations of the world.

 (Photo of coal plant at sunset: U.S. Department of Energy)   

U.S. Climate Bill Stalls While World Experts Seek Energy 'Revolution'

World experts Friday sought an "energy revolution," one that might require a multi-trillion dollar financial commitment, to ward off global warming.

The call for action came even as the U.S. Senate failed to advance a massive climate change bill Friday. 

The International Energy Agency concluded in a new report (available for a charge) that the price of reducing greenhouse gases by half by 2050 could be as much as $45 trillion and require the construction of tens of thousands of new wind turbines as well as many hundreds of new nuclear plants. While that might sound like a lot, the agency concluded that "the current path is not sustainable."

In Washington, backers of the Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act, attempted to paint in optimistic terms the 48-36 vote in which the Senate failed to cut off a Republican filibuster of the bill. After the Senate fell 12 votes short of the 60 needed to move forward on the measure, U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer released a series of letters from six additional senators, including all three major presidential candidates, who said they would have voted to end the debate if they had been present. In a statement, Boxer said:

"We had 54 senators come down on the side of tackling this crucial issue now -- because it is one of the greatest challenges of our generation. This strong vote is up from 38 votes in 2005, and proves that our nation is ready to assume the mantle of leadership on global warming."

But opponents described the bill, which would set up a market-based cap-and-trade system for reducing emissions, as a gigantic tax increase on society at a time when it is already reeling from high energy prices.  

 

Boxer (pictured), a California Democrat who chairs the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, said she would "anxiously await" the inauguration of a new president more disposed to the issue. President Bush had threatened to veto the legislation as Climate Law Update had noted. The vote effectively killing the bill came after supporters hauled out retired military leaders who described climate change in national security terms (see individual statements from Adm. Joe Lopez and Gen. Gordon Sullivan).

The Washington Post reported that Senate leaders pulled back the bill after the vote. 

Critics of the legislation, such as Sen. James Inhofe of Oklahoma, the ranking Republican on the committee, stressed what they described as the bill's huge costs. Inhofe issued a statement in which he referred to it as the "largest tax increase in American history." In his statement, Inhofe said:

"As I suspected, reality hit the U.S. Senate when the economic facts of this bill were exposed. When faced with the inconvenient truth of the bill’s impact on skyrocketing gas prices, very few Senators were willing to even debate this bill."

Inhofe also released another statement and a letter from 10 Democrats suggesting the legislation would have fallen well short of passage had it come to a final vote.

In a statement Friday, Nobuo Tanaka, executive director of the Paris-based agency, which advises 27 nations, mostly in Europe, put the situation in stark terms:

“There should be no doubt - meeting the target of a 50 percent cut in emissions represents a formidable challenge. We would require immediate policy action and technological transition on an unprecedented scale. It will essentially require a new global energy revolution which would completely transform the way we produce and use energy”

The agency also released a graphic presentation and a series of fact sheets laying out its case and what it believes needs to be done. The 50 percent reduction is a figure derived from estimates put forward by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change regarding reductions needed to keep the planet's average temperature from increasing more than 2.4 degrees Centigrade. The G8 organization of the world's richest nations also recently moved toward that goal. 

According to the energy agency, increasing efficiency and virtually eliminating emissions of carbon dioxide, the chief heat-trapping gas, would stabilize emissions at current levels, while cutting them by half would also require other measures, such as carbon capture and storage. Meeting that goal could require the annual construction of 32 new nuclear plants, 17,500 large wind turbines and 215 million square meters of solar panels, as well as more than 50 coal- and gas-fired power plants fitted with carbon capture technology.

Continuing current policies unchanged would produce a 130 percent increase in carbon dioxide emissions and a 70 percent increase in oil demand. That latter figure would mean the equivalent of five times the current production from Saudi Arabia, Tanaka said.

(Picture: Sen. Barbara Boxer's office)