Researchers Tote Individual States' Economic Climate Change Losses
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Shrinkage of Colorado's snowpack could severely damage that state's fabled ski industry. Meanwhile, heavy precipitation combined with even more intense evaporation might create big problems for Great Lakes shipping.
Both are among the potential economic woes climate change could visit on states in the coming years, according to a newly released set of studies.
The reports, put forward by the University of Maryland's Center for Integrative Environmental Research, combine new analysis with existing data and studies and focus on eight states. The findings highlight the fickle, and even seemingly paradoxical, nature of the potential effects of global warming.
In Colorado, a big problem could stem from a dwindling snow pack that by 2085 might reduce Vail's snow cover by 57 percent. Even as soon as 2017, the report says, ski seasons could be so shortened that 4,500 jobs and $375 million in annual losses could result.
But in places like Illinois and Michigan, the problems could take on a different look entirely. There, weirdly, the reports suggest that precipitation could increase markedly but that the levels of the Great Lakes could actually decrease because of higher temperatures and increased evaporation rates. That, in turn, would pose a threat to shipping and spin off a variety of other ill effects, including forcing massive dredging costs along the St. Lawrence Seaway.
Elsewhere, the problem could be rising water levels. In states such as Georgia and New Jersey, higher sea levels could threaten ports and coastal developments. At the same time, Georgia's agriculture could be hit by droughts and its coastline battered by more intense hurricanes.
Generally, across the board, some of the effects, including rising temperatures are already apparent, according to the documents.
All of this, concluded Matthias Ruth, who coordinated the research, adds up to some big economic problems. In a statement released with the report, Ruth said:
"We don't have a crystal ball and can't predict specific bottom lines, but the trend is very clear for these eight states and the nation as a whole: climate change will cost billions in the long run and the bottom line will be red. Inaction or delayed action will make the ink run redder."
That message is consistent with the one climate change activists have been putting forward for some time. Environmentalists, as Climate Law Update has reported, have previously touted research showing both that doing nothing about climate change could be enormously expensive and that efforts to try to put the brakes on the phenomenon could actually boost the economy.
Last year, Ruth himself conducted a nationwide analysis concluding that the total cost of climate change would be high although it remains largely uncounted and hidden in the public rhetoric.
Nevertheless, industry and leaders such as President Bush have consistently cited the economic costs associated with curbing greenhouse gas emissions as reasons to proceed cautiously.
One goal of the report was clearly to spur some action by lawmakers. The latest set of studies was released at a conference in New Orleans put on by the National Conference of State Legislatures. That organization also collaborated with the Maryland center to produce a set of summaries for policy makers. An environmental group, the Environmental Defense Fund, assisted in paying for the work and producing the reports. The environmental group noted that a half-dozen states have already enacted mandatory greenhouse gas reduction laws and 26 have taken steps to require delivery of renewable energy.
Ruth underscored the point:
"If there's a single bottom line in all of this research, it's that delaying action on climate change carries a significant cost. State, local and national leaders will save money in the long run by adopting a proactive approach."
Among other highlights of the reports:
- Kansas could suffer from a drier and warmer climate that periodically also experiences extreme rainfall leading to flooding. The state's vital agriculture industry could be hit by $1 billion losses. Meanwhile, other threats, including more intense tornadoes, could also appear.
- Nevada could get even drier than it is already, putting pressure on scarce water supplies. The study cited research showing a significant chance that the state's Lake Mead, which lies behind Hoover Dam, could be dry within decades.
- Ohio, like its Great Lakes neighbors, could also find itself facing difficulties with shipping as water levels decline.
- Recreation could be hit hard in some states. In Colorado, the famed trout fishery could suffer. Ice fishing-related businesses in the Ohio part of Lake Erie already once this decade had to close because the lake did not freeze. Even a 1 percent decrease in tourism to New Jersey's coastal areas each year could cost $3.7 billion and 40,000 jobs by 2017, according to economic models cited in the studies.
- Although there could be some benefits -- the reports noted that some crop yields in Ohio could actually improve, and climate change could promote the growth of trees in Georgia -- the reports cautioned against any optimism along those lines. Threats such as soil erosion, invasive pests and severe storms could offset many of the short-term advantages, the reports suggested.
Later this year, the Maryland center expects to release reports on four other states, including North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and North Carolina.
--Dennis Pfaff
(Photo of locks on the St. Lawrence Seaway, Wikipedia)
