Climate Law Update: Climate Change & Sustainable Energy News : Thelen Reid Law Firm : Renewable Energy, Construction, Project Finance Lawyers & Attorneys

Analysts at a private research company are predicting that the market for wind turbines and components could experience remarkable growth in the next few years.

According to a statement from the company, BCC Research, its new report shows that the domestic market for turbine hardware will hit nearly $61 billion in 2013. That's a big jump from this year's estimated market value of $11.2 billion. The report itself is available for a fee.

The company said its data showed that Texas -- not surprisingly, given the fact the state is already the nation's top wind power state in terms of capacity -- had the biggest expenditure among the states. Texas' estimated $3 billion this year is likely to jump by several times over to $15.2 billion by 2013, according to the company. Growth in California could be even more remarkable, going from $676 million this year to as much as $17.1 billion in 2013.

Big jumps were also predicted for Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota and Washington.

Although the BCC statement did not include many details of its analysis -- or indicate whether it had looked at the sticky issue of extending federal tax credits for renewable energy  -- its predictions generally seemed compatible with other analyses showing the country with a healthy appetite for wind. For instance, as Climate Law Update reported earlier this spring, federal officials saw significant gains in the energy source over just a single year. Just a few weeks ago, another private market analysis showed a robust future for wind and not long before that the wind industry itself released an analysis showing wind spinning right along. 

The U.S. Department of Energy earlier this year forecast that wind could provide about 20 percent of the nation's energy by 2030. The report estimated that wind in 2008 would account for more than 1 percent of the nation's electricity supply. 

Among the factors favoring the wind industry cited in some of the reports was the presence of the federal tax incentives, as well as state renewables portfolio standards that provide major incentives for utilities to seek out wind and other alternative sources of power.

--Dennis Pfaff of Thelen

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Wind energy in the United States is poised for a record-setting surge, according to a new study released by a private firm analyzing global renewable energy markets.

In a statement, the Cambridge, Mass., outfit  Emerging Energy Research reported that installed wind capacity could exceed 150 gigawatts by 2020. The report itself is available for a fee.

By contrast, a report from the American Wind Energy Association that was the subject of a Climate Law Update dispatch estimated the nation's current capacity at about 19,500 megawatts (19.5 GW). Both reports estimated something in the vicinity of 8,000 megawatts of new capacity could be complete by the end of the year. 

Joshua Magee, policy director for the consulting firm said in the company's statement that energy market conditions are favoring wind:

"Wind is becoming increasingly competitive with conventional fossil fuel power generation options such as natural gas and coal. Given the substantial volatility of fossil fuel capital and operating costs in the past several years, wind is now one of the least-cost power generation options available to US utilities seeking new capacity."

Both the latest report and the earlier analysis by the wind association, however, noted the significant shadow over the renewable industry, the question of federal tax incentives. Lawmakers have repeatedly failed to renew credits for both wind and solar. Such incentives "remain crucial to the wind project revenue stream," said the new statement. Lawmakers are almost certain to attempt to revive some form of assistance for the industry, with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi just this week pledging to push legislation that would include alternative energy sources, according to the San Francisco Chronicle.  

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• In one more indication that China has big hopes for wind power, here's word that the country plans to triple its wind capacity within 2 years, as reported by Inter Press Service in a dispatch carried by Power Engineering International.
• Meanwhile, the shares of American Superconductor Corp. shot up about 20 percent after it was announced the company had struck a deal to sell about $450 million in electronic equipment used in wind turbines to a Chinese company, according to the Boston Herald.
• Congress might be dithering when it comes to incentives for renewable energy like solar, but San Francisco's supervisors aren't waiting, and they approved a new $3 million rebate program for residents and businesses that install solar power systems, according to the San Francisco Chronicle.
• This doesn't sound good: Scientists think that climate change could help release trillions of pounds of carbon from the Siberian permafrost, according to Science Daily.
• This doesn't sound good, either: An Australian expert warns that the planet could be tracking towards irreversible climate change as warming takes place much quicker than previously thought, reports Australia's The Age.

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World experts Friday sought an "energy revolution," one that might require a multi-trillion dollar financial commitment, to ward off global warming.

The call for action came even as the U.S. Senate failed to advance a massive climate change bill Friday. 

The International Energy Agency concluded in a new report (available for a charge) that the price of reducing greenhouse gases by half by 2050 could be as much as $45 trillion and require the construction of tens of thousands of new wind turbines as well as many hundreds of new nuclear plants. While that might sound like a lot, the agency concluded that "the current path is not sustainable."

In Washington, backers of the Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act, attempted to paint in optimistic terms the 48-36 vote in which the Senate failed to cut off a Republican filibuster of the bill. After the Senate fell 12 votes short of the 60 needed to move forward on the measure, U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer released a series of letters from six additional senators, including all three major presidential candidates, who said they would have voted to end the debate if they had been present. In a statement, Boxer said:

"We had 54 senators come down on the side of tackling this crucial issue now -- because it is one of the greatest challenges of our generation. This strong vote is up from 38 votes in 2005, and proves that our nation is ready to assume the mantle of leadership on global warming."

But opponents described the bill, which would set up a market-based cap-and-trade system for reducing emissions, as a gigantic tax increase on society at a time when it is already reeling from high energy prices.  

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• A giant in the wind energy industry has proposed to build hundreds of wind turbines in New York as part of its attempt to gain approval from state regulators in its lengthy battle to purchase a power company, reports The New York Times.
• Kiribati, a low-lying Pacific atoll nation, already may be doomed by climate change, according to the country's president, who contends communities have already been resettled and crops destroyed by seawater, says this report carried by news.com.au. 
• People in the African nation of Mali are turning to guns to settle their differences as "as runaway population growth, shrinking water resources and deteriorating pastoral and agricultural land are turning neighbours into enemies," writes Jan Egeland, the UN Secretary-General's special adviser on conflict, who is traveling the continent looking at what may be the worst effects of climate change in the world, in this dispatch carried by allAfrica.com.
• OK, maybe somebody understands what this means: The man known as the French "Spiderman" climbed The New York Times building to draw attention to global warming, reports Reuters. And then someone else tried the same stunt.
• Dutch Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende says he stressed the importance of making progress in the fight against climate change when he spoke with President Bush at the White House Thursday, according to AFP.
  

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